The job market.

Housing starts.

More data.

Sorry folks!  But our job as Marxists is not to be perpetual pessimists preaching that doom and gloom are always right around the corner.  I calls it like I sees it.  And right now, it looks like we are entering the boom phase of the industrial cycle.

Only if the Federal Reserve quickly raises the payment of interest on excess reserves to higher rates will this boom get snuffed out before it gets going.

The deflationary signals that we are seeing right now stem from the Fed’s increase of the IOER from 0.25% to 0.50% recently.  That is keeping money cooped up in bank vaults on the Federal Reserve’s account rather than having that money serve as the fractional basis for new loans.  The Fed might have some difficulty finding its desired balance between deflation and inflation with this new (and absurd) “tool,” so no guarantees that it won’t overshoot and push things temporarily into deflation.

But I cannot see how even a deflationary blip engineered by the Fed’s IOER would permanently put an early end to this business cycle before we really get to experience a “boom” phase that uses up all of that excess capital and leverages a lot of new credit money on top of that excess capital.

Advertisements